[oricon] Degree of Expectation for Next Week’s New Singles

*1 301.10 前田敦子 (akb48’s Maeda Atsuko)

*2 *76.40 GreeeN
*3 *66.70 T.M.Revolution
*4 *56.60 SHINee
*5 *51.90 AAA
*6 *44.80 Dir en grey
*7 *34.20 ねごと
*8 *23.40 新選組リアン
*9 *18.40 つるの剛士
10 *18.00 加藤ミリヤ
Source : http://www.oricon.co.jp/rank/ns/ | Up by JHolic @ DC Shinee Gallery
People say this is not absolute, but it can be a reference. DoE for SuJu was 34.1, and 49.9 for SNSD.

39 thoughts on “[oricon] Degree of Expectation for Next Week’s New Singles

  1. jujgal, can you explain this a bit further for me? I don’t quite understand this, is this like some kind of guessing as to what rank SHINee will debut on? They think SHINee will rank #4 on Oricon or something?

      • The Nikki scores is a score chart. It’s a survey measuring the public interest in a single/album. The biggest score a single or an album can get is 400. There are different charts for singles and albums.

    • i think 400 didnt the biggest score in nikki. i found in some blog that nikki score for akb48 everyday, kachuusha: 571.10, but actual sales 1st week in oricon: 1.2million.
      but i didnt know this is true or not.

      • Really? I have never actually seen scores that high. I’ve been a fan of Ayumi HAmasaki for years and 400 is what I’ve heard is the limit. Now I’m a bit confused haha!

        Well the Nikki doesn’t predict the sales, it’s just an indicator of a single’s or an album’s popularity amongst the Japanese public. For an example; SNSD’s Mr Taxi had a Ninki score of 80.0 while Jang Geun Seok had 40.0. In the end Jang Geun Seok sold almost 20 000 more copies than SNSD.

        Oh and it’s called Ninki. My bad 🙂

    • Hi Thangkhung91, is it okay to reply? ;)) It’s called Ninki ratings..It’s sorta like a poll,…It’s done by Oricon to know public interest regarding a new album/single (although it doesn’t really reflect the total sales of that song/album) and usually gives a strong prediction as to the extent of its popularity among the Japanese public after the song/album is released. Although it’s true that there are different charts for singles and albums, sources say Oricon already has extended it’s polling to around 600-700 people now, because there are some artists that have had Ninki ratings of more than 400 and even 500 before (like akb48 for example). ^__~ That being said, SHINee having that rating is actually pretty good since it’s a debut single, and considering it’s still not that long that they’ve been promoting in Japan. Plus, EMI’s giving them many opportunities to promote their song even to places outside Tokyo.. ;))

      • I have nothing more to say about Ninki ranking.

        However, with Acchan, Greeeeeen and TM Revolution, No. 4 is a very good start for them 🙂 I’m looking forward to seeing their sale 🙂

  2. wow! akb48 maeda atsuko expected to sell 301.10? ohh wow! its like 5 times higher than shinee? even though i heard that maeda atsuko going to release on the same date with shinee & she is the most popular member in akb48, but i dont expect to see such a huge difference. >< ok, now im gonna admit this is a tough competition for shinee. anyhow, fighting! just debut successfully! 🙂

    • Let’s remember SHINee is a NEW group just debuting. Basically they are unknown to the public even though they are big stars to us 🙂

    • They have to cope with 3 big name at the (Acchan, Greeeeen and TM Revolution); therefore, I say No 4 is a very good start for them. I think I will actually look at their sale.

      Acchan has the biggest wota (fanbase) among all of AKB48 girls. She is the ace and the No 1 after the latest senbatsu (voting among AKB48 fans for the girls ranking); thus, I did expect this ranking 🙂 No need to worry, they still have a lot of chances 🙂

      • Thanks for adding explanation. I think shawols didn’t expect SHINee to be ranked No 1 over Acchan (as you said the top girl of AKB48). But they didn’t anticipate No 4 either. (Without saying it out loud, most of us was hoping SHINee’d come 2nd or at least 3rd, you know. Especially because there are high expectations even from non-fans. But I agree with you. I’ll also see the sales, not the ranking. (Isn’t it we can’t even see the sale number for the 4th on the chart? They show the number for the first three, if I remember correctly.)

  3. For those asking what this is
    The NINKI ratings are the results of a POLL conducted by Oricon indicating interest in an upcoming release. Although the ratings are never a true reflection of sales, it does give a strong prediction about where the single/album will place in terms of popularity amongst the Japanese public. However, they are NOT an indication of how it will perform in terms of chart positioning and total sales for the week.

  4. Expecting SHINee to top the Oricon chart or sell over 100k is a bit unrealistic. Even Kara and SNSD worked in JP for months before they started selling over 30k, 50k and 100k & placed on the daily, weekly & monthly chart.

    If SHINee sells over 50k on debut day, they will already be breaking records regardless of where they stand in the Oricon chart. Actually, even over 40k will be a great start already. Please look at it that way.

    • Well the thing is, this nikki chart is an estimate for 1st WEEK of sales. Nevertheless, if they can sell over 55K the first week, it’s good enough. Apparently how they estimate this is, they take a group of ppl from the population of buyers and do some kind of a survey? I’m not sure but I believe that’s how they get the proportion for these expected sales. I really wish the boys luck, feels like the pressure is on to be honest.

      • I think selling from 20k-30k copies on Jun 22nd is already a good start. If it’s 40k, then that’s great and totally unexpected. I’m not under estimating the boys. It’s just that Kara and SNSD worked for months in JP just to achieve that level of sales while SHINee is just about to start.

        Regardless, I hope the boys are not to stressed about this and focus on doing a great show in London and the MTV VMAJ next Sun.

    • You know what, actually some non-fans are starting to put out really high number for SHINee’s first week album sales. Fans don’t like it because they might be doing it to make fun of SHINee later when the actual sales doesn’t meet the expectation. So fans are being really careful.

      • i saw it coming too. actually, i dont want to have high expectation since i dont want to feel disappointed later on. i dont quite understand how japanese market works, so that’s why im a bit hype about their number of sales. now, im worried for the boys. for no reason really. confused what to feel now.
        anyhow, im just going to be happy for the boys! that’s all.
        p/s : im notice that other fans cant believe what shinee can achieve. like, they will perform in abbey studio, many asked stupid question, why celebrate in london for their japanese debut? shudnt they be in japan for that? etc.

  5. My inner predictions were actually that they would sell at least 50k, so I’m pleased to see this number. As you said, they are a new group so they will have to work up to bigger numbers. SNSD’s debut single sold 40k+ in it’s first week and now their album sold 100k+ in a week. Shinee can work up to this, too if they are able to be noticed by the Japanese public by going on TV shows and things. Maybe I’m a little too optimistic, but I think if they can be seen by Japanese public there will be much interest in them! 🙂

    • For a reference, the DoE for SuJu was 34.1 and they sold 59K in the first week. Beast had about 56, similar to SHINee, but they are likely to sell about 40K in the first week. SuJu didn’t make an official debut, but Beast did and are more known to the public. But in album sales, SuJu proved they have a good fanbase in Japan.

      • Interesting! I guess we will see how loyal Japanese Shinee fans are soon then. People thought Shinee would do well because 100,000 people applied to see them in concert and they had a successful concert. But Beast also had a successful concert in Japan and their sales turned out to be lower than the projected prediction. So yes! We shall see~

      • I looked it up and it was a showcase, but thousands people were there and it was a place where they hold actual concerts. lol thats why I thought it was a concert.

      • For a showcase, it’s free or the ticket is very cheap. So it may not be an exact indicator for a fanbase. There are general kpop fans. Many of them might be light fans. So 100K applied for SHINee concert, but I’m not sure how many of them are real SHINee fans or light fans who wouldn’t buy the debut single.

      • Just a reply to JW 🙂 The reason why Beast’s debut single didn’t sell very much was in large because of the Tohoku earthquake and the tsunami. They had already produced the singles and couldn’t stop the shipments. I’m sure they would have sold a lot more if the earthquake had never happened.

      • I agree with JW. SuJu’s single was released one (or two?) week before Beast, but they sold 59K. 2pm also sold about 59K. So the logic doesn’t make sense. But I have nothing against Beast if you are also a beauty, but just stating the fact.

      • @thangkhung I’m not sure I understand that logic. Other people sold a lot even though the earthquake happened. How many cds they produced doesn’t really have to do with how many people will buy….

        Maybe I’m not understanding you?

      • Beast’s company stated that they wanted to hold off the release of their debut single but couldn’t since the stores already had received the cds. That’s what I meant when I mentioned the shipments.

        And of course the Tohoku earthquake wasn’t the sole reason to the low sales, but I do believe it played a big part. You can’t deny that it’s was a big distraction and since they were a rookie group from Korea, few from the general public payed much interest in their debut. What I’m trying to say is that Beast’s sales may have (since we really don’t know) had an underrepresentation of people from the genereal public buying their single.

        I hope this makes sense 😛

      • @jujugal Which single did you mean? I was talking about their Shock single in March, and I think the one you are referring to is Bad Girl releaed yesterday?:P Correct me if I’m wrong.

      • Yes, I was talking about BG. So we were talking about different things. I don’t know about their debut single sales record. I’m NOT interested in them, but because they are releasing BG one week before SHINee, it came to my attention. And the same with SuJu. I just mentioned it as an example of the DoE not matching the actual sales. I DONT want to talk about them here. So let’s stop here.

      • Oh, ok I understand then. Didn’t mean to make it all about them, just tried to explain. And I’m not a beauty btw so no worries about that 🙂

  6. We shouldn’t say too much. There is high expectations in SHINee’s debut.
    And sometimes, sooo much hype about Japan’s expectations on SHINee.
    The constant good news is both good and bad.
    Good because we know that SHINee is doing good in Japan atm.
    Bad because shawols might be too overwhelmed and confident about SHINee’s Japanese debut. Im afraid that this may lead to some shawols being complacent with SHINee’s success and wont buy albums anymore. *Im crossing my fingers that this wont happen though*

    Im really worried. I dunno. Maybe because we dont know what the haters are planning atm.
    Anyways, I hope those few Shawols would stop boasting around and make SHINee’s fame seem like it is really a big deal (even if it is really a big deal on us. Unless and until SHINee’s debut, we still dunno what will happen. We should always be cautious because sometimes those news are over-rated) It is better if we’ll just keep it to ourselves especially if we are on a public forums and not on exclusive forums for SHINee. So it’s okay for site like this. Most of the times, instead of attracting people about SHINee and join the club, they’ll get the wrong notion.

    (Sorry about ranting here. I just wanna remind Shawols about this, because there are some who tend to over do this things. I just don’t want SHINee being bashed elsewhere because of this. Sorry for the long post) 🙂

  7. i wouldn’t say much but i think what we should do is, hope for the best and expect for the worst.

  8. i’m crossing my fingers and i’m praying that SHINee will be a success in japan. (which i have no doubt in my mind they will) i really want them to do well. they have never let us shawols down before. they need our support now, so lets give it to them. i’m just thinking positive, although i know i shouldn’t get my hopes up.

    shawols also have to be aware that since SHINee are getting more famous, they are getting more haters. well at least they are talking about them, more publicity if you ask 😀

    SHINee Fighting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • Well, the performance is FOR their Japanese debut, so it only makes sense to sing in Japanese. If they weren’t debuting in Japan they wouldn’t be performing at Abbey Road in the first place. Is it because they think Shinee should be representing Korea and Korean culture everywhere they go? I don’t get it.

      • Some of them think that way like SHINee are suddenly Korea’s national group. It’s also because of the media’s distorted report–they are making this look like SHINee’s European debut when in fact it is only for their Japan debut. I also saw comments on youtube asking why English fans are not invited when SHINee is performing in Abbey Road. People seem to be confused about this event. And there are haters who want to find any small excuse to criticize SHINee out of jealousy. It IS nonsensical, but some of them are even arguing for a petition, hahahaha.

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